There is a lot of hype about the upcoming North American winter with talk of mega el nino patterns bringing ice age style snow dumps right where we want it – the mountains.
Rachael Oakes-Ash attended the AspenWeather.net winter forecast party at the Limelight Hotel to make sense of the hype.
Why throw a party if the forecast is shite? That was my reasoning as I made my way to the uber cool Limelight Hotel for free pizza and beer thanks to Ryan Boudreau and Cory Gates from AspenWeather.net.
The snow forecasting site has been titillating Aspen weather geeks for the past four years with exceptionally accurate forecasting. They offer a monthly membership for twice daily emails, three to six day forecasts and weather forecasting for the airport to determine if your plane will get in. They even have ten day vacation memberships for those just in for some skiing.
The key is Cory, a meteorologist and weather obsessive with a Paul Newman charm. He’s been handed meteorology medals from President Clinton, found fame as one of the top two forecasters in the USA in the 1990s, forecasts for Michelle Obama when she’s in town and is affectionately known around town as ‘the wizard’ for his ability to nail forecast after forecast.
In the 2012/2013 season his long range snowfall forecast seven months in advance was off by only one inch. He credits this with being able to concentrate on one spot, Aspen, rather than spread the forecasts around across a state that has vastly different snow falls.
I arrived ten minutes after the 6.30pm festivity start time but already there was a long line for the famous (and free) Limelight pizza and it was four deep at the bar for the equally free beer. The way to a ski town is obviously through the pocket.
Cory had brought along a powerpoint presentation that filled me with dread and flashbacks to corporate pow wows worthy of a long nap. But thanks to his enigmatic and passionate style and the ability to breakdown meteorological terms into lay person’s speak I was soon engrossed in his every word.
So the deal for this winter from Cory (who is willing to commit 100%) is that 2015/2016 will be a Strong El Nino. This is only the third time in recorded history that a Strong El Nino will happen. Think of a Strong El Nino as an El Nino on steroids.
The last time a Strong El Nino occurred in 1997 down town Aspen village received 188 inches (470cms) on the roads. The time before that in 1983 the cobbled malls of Aspen were blessed with 216 inches (540cms). So just imagine what fell up top on the ski resort.
The important thing to remember with El Nino and climate change is that El Nino is not man made, it is cyclical every two to three years and it is just what the Pacific ocean does. This season the waters near the equator and along the Pacific North West will be super warm.
As a result, according to Cory and AspenWeather.net the autumn months of October, November and December will be wetter than normal. The peak of the Strong El Nino will be December 1 to January 1 so early season powder days are definitely on the cards. The North West however will have a dry autumn period.
The South West of Colorado will be wetter than the remainder of the state. This is great news for Telluride, Silverton and their friends in that area of the state.
For Vail and Aspen and their ski resort friends there are two streams that can bring more snow to the state, one from the North West and one from the South. More great news with double the chances.
January and February will stray either side of a normal season, could be up, could be just down. Then March and April may well be wet again for some later season powder.
Cory’s snowfall predictions are around 10inches above ‘normal’ for the season ahead. Aspen will receive 329 inches (822cms), Snowmass 358 inches (895cms) and Highlands 333 inches (832cms). But remember this is exceptional compared to last year’s Colorado season which was well below normal. Aspen had a six week dry spell in the 2013/2014 season.
There is talk from Ryan of setting up TellurideWeather.net and other key ski Colorado locations with local meteorologists but if it happens it won’t happen till next season. Which, by the way, if previous El Ninos are any indication, will be sparse. Traditionally El Nino bumper winter snow falls are followed by less than average winters the next season.
It started to rain as I walked home from the event and this morning when I woke there was snow on Aspen Highlands Bowl.
I would say they are both good omens.
